UFC 311 roundtable: Are Islam Makhachev and Merab Dvalishvili both due for defeat?

Islam Makhachev and Merab Dvalishvili are two of the most dominant fighters in all of MMA.

But can they avoid a sour start to their 2025 campaigns?

We find out this Saturday as both champions put their titles on the line at UFC 311. Makhachev defends the lightweight title against Arman Tsarukyan in the main event, which serves as a rematch of their April 2019 encounter that ended with Makhachev’s hand raised. One fight prior, Dvalishvili looks for his first title defense as the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov challenges him for the bantamweight belt.

You have to go back to 2018 to find Dvalishvili’s most recent loss and further back to 2015 for Makhachev’s, so the odds are understandably in their favor. All they do is win. However, the same could be said for Tsarukyan (9-1 since losing to Makhachev) and Nurmagomedov, the latter of whom is a sterling 18-0 to begin his pro career.

In short: these title fights are awesome! So the MMA Fighting crew of Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew got together for early predictions of how UFC 311’s championship fights might turn out, as well as what else to watch for on the first UFC pay-per-view of the year.

---

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

1. How many times do we hear “And New” on Saturday?

Lee: You’ll hear it one time and you’ll hear it before the main event kicks off.

It’s no secret I’ve been on the Umar Nurmagomedov train for ages and there’s no turning back now. Question the names on his résumé all you want, anyone who has paid attention to what Nurmagomedov has done inside the cage will tell you he has all the makings of a champion, and a dominant one at that. None of this is to downplay what Merab Dvalishvili has accomplished even if he goes one and done as a champion, because he would have had his shot at the belt years ago if his close friend Aljamain Sterling hadn’t been holding it and several of the fighters Nurmagomedov knocked off on his 11-fight streak are former champions.

But Nurmagomedov is just that damn good and if there’s one thing you can’t fight, it’s the future. It’s Umar’s time.

As for the main event, Arman Tsarukyan is going to give Islam Makhachev hell for five rounds… and it still won’t be enough to dethrone the lightweight king. There’s a reason Makhachev reigns as MMA Fighting’s Pound-for-Pound No. 1 (sorry, not sorry, Dana), that being there is simply no better fighter on the planet right now. Tsarukyan can cause a seismic shakeup if he upsets Makhachev, but I predict he falls just short.

Meshew: Once.

The main event fight between Makhachev and Tsarukyan is awesome and I’m pretty darn excited for it. In my opinion, it’s the best fight that can be made in MMA right now, skill for skill. But for as wonderful as I believe the fight will be, I believe Makhachev retains his title and spot atop the pound-for-pound rankings.

In some ways, Makhachev presents the worst possible matchup for Tsarukyan because he’s just a little bit better in every category. Tsarukyan is a terrific wrestler and grappler, but we’ve seen how that plays out against Makhachev—he’s good enough to compete and make things interesting, but a small margin behind. Tsarukyan has also come along in the striking, but if you rewatch their first fight, you’ll notice that Makhachev is the one who barely strikes in it. Islam is better defensively on the feet and far more confident in his standup than he used to be, whereas Tsarukyan is still piecing things together.

If these two fought in a year, my opinion might change, but I believe Makhachev remains in his prime and Tsarukyan has yet to peak, giving the champion a decided advantage.

The co-main event is a different story though. I’ve said for years that Nurmagomedov was a future champion and he’ll make me right this weekend. Merab’s cardio and pressure can break many men, but they won’t amount to much against a superior grappler with much better striking. Merab needs to try and steal an early round and then hope he can Merab things up in the championship rounds, but I don’t think that’s happening. Umar Nurmagomedov is about to ascend.

Heck: I’ll say (at least) one time, but it wouldn’t surprise me if both titles change hands.

I’m not going to mince words because you know where I’m going with this: Tsarukyan will leave UFC 311 with the most difficult championship to win in MMA. He will defeat Makhachev, leading to one of the most anticipated trilogy fights in UFC history. In all honesty, this is me staying on brand, but I have believed Tsarukyan would be UFC lightweight champion from the very first time I saw a clip of him fighting in 2017. From there, I’ve never wavered from that championship prediction, and I’m all-in in 2025 (just like I was in 2024).

The co-main event is very interesting. For the UFC 311 Watch Party, I have a bet on Dvalishvili. I got him at +285, and “The Machine” being that big of an underdog to anybody at bantamweight is an automatic play. Nurmagomedov is very, very good, but I’ve maintained from the beginning that Dvalishvili fighting him now should’ve always been the move, despite his silly callout of Petr Yan (that can come next).

I’m ultimately going to stick with Merab to retain the title, because until I see his double-digit winning streak actually come to an end, it’s frankly too hard to imagine.

---

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

2. Outside of the top-2 fights, what’s the must-see matchup of the main card?

Meshew: Anyone not saying Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill is a liar.

Prochazka is in the rarified tier of fighter that are legitimately must-see TV. In six UFC fights he’s won five bonuses and the two fights he did not earn a bonus in were his knockout losses to Alex Pereira, who got a bonus both times!

Prochazka is light heavyweight Justin Gaethje, but on top of being unmissable in the cage, he’s also a bona fide crazy person outside of it. You could make up almost any story about Prochazka and it would be believable. He claims to train with Bigfoot in the Himalayas? Sure. He sleeps only two hours a night and does so standing and with his eyes open? Sounds right. He once tracked a bear through the woods for three days and killed it with rusty spoon? Wouldn’t shock me.

Jiri Prochazka is always and forever the right answer.

Heck: Jed? Really?

First off, you’re 100 percent correct, because Prochazka vs. Hill is the most intriguing non-title fight on the books in quite some time, and a fight I’ve wanted since Hill beat Glover Teixeira. The pressure on the shoulders of Hill is off the freaking charts, while Prochazka is in must-win territory in his own right.

I’m just shocked you didn’t go with my answer: The reigning, defending, undisputed, forever GOATed middleweighty-middleweight champ Reinier de Ridder is making his UFC pay-per-view debut, and he’ll do so against Kevin Holland. The over-under on belly laughs as we watch this fight is at 3.5, and I’m seriously considering the over. Holland is always fun, plus he hilariously talks crap, while “RDR” is just an all-gas, no brakes, but yet, very effective silly goose out there.

That fight is going to rule, even though there’s a real chance it gets forgotten in the storyline chaos in the aftermath.

Lee: Gentlemen, you’ve left me to wax poetic about Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano and you know what? I’m happy to do it.

Beneil Dariush will go down as one of the unappreciated fighters of this era. Much of that is his own doing as marketing himself isn’t one of his strengths, to put it kindly, but some of it is also out of his control. All Dariush has done is fought the best of the best of the lightweight division, delivered exciting performances, and kept himself controversy-free (probably to a fault). He’s lost two straight and as he approaches his 36th birthday, this could be the last time we see him perform on pay-per-view.

There are worse ways to go out than passing the torch to Moicano. If you want to see someone refuse to be cast into irrelevance, just study the rise of “Money Moicano,” who went from lightweight also-ran to one of the most visible personalities in the division. And just as importantly, he keeps racking up Ws, so not only is he in line for an exciting fight against Dariush, he has a legitimate shot of fighting Makhachev (or Tsarukyan) later this year if he keeps things up.

The 155-pound division rules and we’re blessed with two elite matchups this Saturday.

---

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

3. Which preliminary card fighter is about to set themselves up for a huge 2025 campaign?

Meshew: There’s an obvious answer here but in exchange for talking about my large idiot violence king in section two, I’ll leave that one for others. Instead, I’ll explain why Rinya Nakamura is about to break out in 2025.

Nakamura is a prospect I’m very high on. He’s definitely a little older at 29 (turning 30 in March) but he has the makings of a legitimate top-10 bantamweight. After all, we’re talking about the U23 World Champion in wrestling, here. For context, Bo Nickal, a man almost universally believed to be one of the best prospects in the sport, is also a U23 World Champion. If Nakamura lived in the United States he’d have wrestled in college and probably been a multiple time NCAA champion as well. Nakamura had a real shot at the Olympics, but the COVID delay led him to move to MMA, and we’re better off for it.

Like Nickal, Nakamura still has a long way to develop, but he’s already shown his wrestling translates to the cage and he’s a willing striker. Nakamura is going to run over Muin Gafurov to move to 3-0 in the UFC, at which point he’ll start moving up the bantamweight ladder for real. This current crop of ascending Japanese talents are all great and Nakamura may have the highest upside.

Lee: It’s Payton Talbott. What can I say? When I see low-hanging fruit, I snatch it right up.

Last year when we were drafting MMA fantasy teams (hey, check out the 2025 edition!), I may have been a little too excited when I picked Talbott without him even having a fight booked to close out 2024. It doesn’t matter, he’s here now, and he has a true test ahead of him. One that if he passes, establishes him as one of the five best prospects in the UFC right now, assuming he isn’t that already.

Raoni Barcelos is no walkover. He’s been a pro for 12 years, has over twice as many fights as Talbott, and he’s been facing strong competition for the majority of his UFC run. It’s entirely possible this is too much, too soon for young Talbott.

That said, Talbott has been a joy to watch so far, and even if he leaves California with a competitive decision loss, that should be considered a positive mark on his record. The sky is the limit for the eclectic 26-year-old and he has a chance to soar if everything comes together for him as he takes part in his first UFC pay-per-view lineup.

Heck: Talbott is the easy answer here, no doubt about it—and now, it’s officially the correct one.

Talbott probably has the highest ceiling of any of the prelim fighters, the issue is he’s in one of the deepest divisions in the sport, and his path up the ladder is probably one that stretches in 2026 at the earliest. Could he be a fighter who goes 4-0 with four finishes? Certainly, but he’s not a in a huge rush.

My original pick was Bogdan Guskov! Why? For the exact opposite reason. Light heavyweight is a flipping terrible division. Absolutely awful, and one where being exciting (he is) and available can be rewarded more so than in any other division in the UFC. Ask Khalil Rountree about that. Unfortunately, his opponent Johnny Walker suffered a “bad injury” and is out of the fight, so even if reports are true that Guskov has a short-notice replacement, I’ll officially default to Talbott because he is going to be one of the breakout fighters of the year.

A win over Barcelos, at least in my eyes, means something at 135. If Talbott does what I think he will do at UFC 311, it will be very interesting to see what kind of matchups the UFC will consider for him. I assume they’ll try and find someone with a number next to his name.

This article first appeared at MMA Fighting – All Posts

---

Help support MMACrazies.com when you shop Amazon by starting your online Amazon shopping at MMACrazies.com/recommends/amazon. You are not charged extra, but we receive a small and very helpful commission on everything you purchase. Thanks for thinking of us every time you shop at Amazon.